What You’ll Find
ScoreGenius surfaces betting markets alongside our model outputs so you can see the game from both angles—the line and the forecast. We display moneyline, spread, and totals for every game we cover, and pair them with our pregame score predictions. The upcoming Edge feature highlights where our projection diverges most from the posted line.
Sports & Markets
- Leagues: NFL, NBA, MLB
- Displayed Markets: Moneyline, Spread, Total (Over/Under)
- Context: Odds appear directly in the game cards on the Games screen next to our predicted scores.
How the “Edge” Works
The Edge compares our projection to the sportsbook line across moneyline and spread markets. By converting both into probabilities, we measure whether the model’s outlook provides real value.
Moneyline
- Convert book odds into vig-free implied probabilities.
- Convert our predicted score differential into a win probability.
- Edge = model win probability − market win probability.
- A positive edge means our projection sees more value on that side.
Spread
- Market provides a spread and American odds (e.g., -2.5 (−110), +2.5 (−110)).
- Convert our predicted margin into a cover probability using a normal
approximation for scoring volatility.
- Edge = model cover probability − market cover probability.
- Expressed as (modelProb − marketProb) × 100 for an edge percentage.
Thresholds
We grade the signal by both percentage edge and confidence (z-score):
• High: edge ≥ 5% and z ≥ 0.75
• Medium: edge ≥ 3% and z ≥ 0.5
• Low: edge ≥ 1.5% and z ≥ 0.25
• No Value: otherwise
Reading a Game in the App
- Predicted Score: Our model’s pregame projection for each team.
- Moneyline: Odds to win the game outright (e.g., -145 / +125).
- Spread: Point handicap applied to the favorite (e.g., -3.5).
- Total: Combined points line (e.g., 217.5).
- Edge: A quick indicator (Low / Medium / High) based on the difference between our probability and the market’s vig-free probability.
How Fans Use Odds + Predictions
- Pre-Game Scan: Sort by matchups where our predicted margin differs from the spread.
- Moneyline Focus: Compare our win signal to the line’s implied probability.
- Totals Lens: Check whether our projected total meaningfully diverges from the posted number.
- Context First: Consider injuries, rest, weather (NFL/MLB venues), and recent form shown in-app.
FAQs
Do odds update in real time?
Odds refresh periodically on the Games screen. Lines can move—open the matchup to see the latest markets next to our projection.
Do you show moneyline, spread, and totals for every game?
Yes—when markets are available for that matchup, we display all three alongside our predicted score.
What does “Edge” actually mean?
It’s the gap between our model’s probability and the sportsbook’s vig-free probability. For moneyline, that means comparing win probabilities; for spread, it means cover probabilities. We flag the edge as Low, Medium, or High based on statistical thresholds.
Where can I learn more?
See the Documentation for feature details, or visit Disclaimer for important usage notes.
Glossary
Moneyline
Odds to win the game outright (e.g., -145 favorite, +125 underdog).
Spread
Point handicap for the favorite; your team must “cover” to win a spread wager.
Total (Over/Under)
Combined score line for both teams; you pick over or under that number.
Implied Probability
The line’s probability once converted from moneyline odds; a base for value comparisons.
Try It Now
Explore live odds next to our pregame projections on the Games screen. Prefer an app? Install from the Google Play Store or the Samsung Galaxy Store.